Outlook 2025
Overall economic development¹
In its World Economic Outlook in mid-January, the IMF forecast global growth of 3.3% for 2025, which will be below the historical average. Economic development will therefore also be characterized by divergences in the current financial year. While the US economy remains stable with growth of 2.7%, economic momentum in Europe and Asia will be weaker in 2025 than previously anticipated.
Inflation remains a key issue. While global inflation is slowing and is expected to fall to 4.2% in 2025, it will remain at an above-average level in some emerging economies and commodity-importing countries. The US and Europe will come closer to the inflation targets of their central banks with an expected 2.0 to 2.1%.
According to the IMF, the financial markets will remain volatile in 2025 – particularly due to divergent interest rate policies. While gradual interest rate cuts are expected in the US, other national economies may tighten their monetary policies. This would encourage a stronger US dollar and lead to potential capital outflows from emerging economies. At the same time, uncertainty about long-term financial stability is rising, especially in highly indebted markets.
Prospects on sales markets
The firefighting industry follows economic developments with a gap of one to two years. Demand is largely defined by countries with steady procurement. However, elevated safety awareness following natural disasters also leads to increased investment in firefighting technology and equipment. There are signs that airports around the world are becoming more willing to invest again. In Europe, new financing programs for security and infrastructure are being drawn up for geopolitical reasons.
Now that international supply chains have returned to their usual stability, the global firefighting industry should continue growing in 2025. Despite a weak economic environment, the public sector is continuously investing in the safety of people and infrastructure.
Rosenbauer closely monitors the development of the different firefighting markets in order to exploit sales opportunities early on. Sales activities are then stepped up locally in the countries or regions where greater procurement volumes have been identified. At the end of the reporting period, the Group had a historically high order backlog of €2,279.8 million (2023: €1,788.0 million). This figure surpassed the Group’s annual revenues significantly, ensuring capacity utilization into 2026.
Revenues and result of operations
The firefighting industry, whose order books are full to bursting, lags behind the economic cycle. The improved supply chains that make it possible to produce and deliver ordered vehicles and equipment faster are the main drivers of the current revenue growth. Accordingly, the fire department companies should expect overall higher industry sales in 2025 as well. However, it is unclear how tight local budgets and any new trade barriers will impact further demand.
Following a record level of incoming orders in 2024 of €1,705.2 million, the Rosenbauer Group has started the current financial year with a solid order backlog of €2,279.8, well in excess of one year’s revenues. The Executive Board expects sales of around €1.5 billion in 2025. Based on the initiatives of the last two years, the EBIT margin is expected to continue improving to over 6%.
1 IMF, World Economic Outlook, January 17, 2025