Outlook 2026
Overall economic development¹
The IMF expects the global economy to remain robust in 2026, with global growth of around 3.3% at the previous year’s level. Macroeconomic developments continue to vary across regions. At around 2.4%, growth remains relatively strong in the US, and moderate in Europe at around 1.3%. In Asia, growth is higher overall. China has slowed to 4.5%, while India and parts of Southeast Asia continue to grow well above the global average.
Global inflation momentum is likely to weaken further in 2026. The IMF expects average consumer price inflation to be around 3.8%. In advanced economies, inflation is approaching the central banks’ target values – around 2% in the euro area, declining more slowly in the US. Falling energy prices are also having a dampening effect on price pressure.
According to the IMF, the financial markets remain characterized by a supportive monetary policy environment. In the US and UK, further interest rate cuts are expected, while the European Central Bank is pursuing a stable interest rate trajectory. The US dollar is expected to remain robust but volatile in 2026. Emerging economies with solid economic policy frameworks are benefiting from monetary easing and favorable global financing conditions.
Prospects on sales markets
The firefighting industry follows economic developments with a gap of one to two years. Demand is largely shaped by countries with steady procurement and increased awareness of safety following natural disasters. Globally, airports are showing greater willingness to invest, supported by growing flight operations, regulatory requirements, and an increasing awareness of operational risks. In Europe, new financing programs for security and infrastructure are being drawn up for geopolitical reasons.
Against this backdrop, demand for the global firefighting industry is expected to remain stable in 2026 because, despite a mixed economic environment and tightening budgets, the public sector is continually investing in the safety of people and infrastructure.
Rosenbauer closely monitors the development of the different firefighting markets in order to exploit sales opportunities early on. Sales activities are then stepped up locally in the countries or regions where greater procurement volumes have been identified. At the end of the reporting period, the Group had a historically high order backlog of €2,354.6 million (2024: €2,279.8 million). This figure surpassed the Group’s annual revenues significantly, ensuring capacity utilization into 2027.
Overall assessment of future development
From today’s perspective, the Rosenbauer Group has adequate conditions for orderly business development in 2026. The firefighting industry is predominantly shaped by public sector clients and, from experience, follows economic developments with a time lag. Despite an economic environment characterized by uncertainty, investments in measures for security, infrastructure, and disaster prevention generally have a stabilizing effect on demand.
As of the reporting date, the Group had a solid order backlog that will substantially support capacity utilization in the coming periods. Further development will depend on factors including the macroeconomic situation in the individual regions, the implementation of ongoing projects, and the development of prices of energy, raw materials, and input materials. Measures to increase efficiency, optimize value-added processes, and improve working capital will be continued.
At the same time, the Executive Board is aware of the existing risks, in particular in connection with geopolitical developments, cost and price pressures, and possible changes in financial framework conditions. Considering the measures taken, the Group’s international positioning, and the established risk management, the Executive Board expects the operational development of the Rosenbauer Group to be stable overall in the 2026 financial year.
Based on current planning, the Executive Board expects sales of approximately €1.5 billion for the 2026 financial year. Taking into account the existing uncertainties, the EBIT margin is expected to continue to improve to over 6%.
1 IMF, World Economic Outlook, January 19, 2026