▸2020 Outlook
2020 Outlook1,2
The appearance of a novel coronavirus in China last December, which is responsible for the COVID-19 respiratory illness and has since led to a pandemic, has prompted the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to adjust its forecast for global economic growth. Assuming that the measures to contain COVID-19 take effect and the Chinese economy returns to normality in the second quarter, global growth could still reach 3.2% this year, following 2.9% in 2019. At the time of writing this report, the IMF had not presented a new detailed economic outlook in view of the existing uncertainties.
According to the IMF, it is seen as positive that the market sentiment has recently improved due to the tentative signs of a recovery in terms of production activities and the stabilization of global trading. In addition to this are a widely accommodative monetary policy, several favorable pieces of news from trade negotiations between the US and China as well as allayed fears of a disorderly Brexit.
At the same time, the risks to the stabilization of economic growth are obvious: a more global and lasting spread of COVID- 19 and a further deterioration of US economic relations with its trading partners.
PROSPECTS ON SALES MARKETS
The firefighting industry follows economic developments at a delay of several months. Demand is largely defined by countries with steady procurement. However, elevated safety awareness following natural disasters also leads to increased investment in firefighting technology and equipment.
The global firefighting industry appears stable in 2020 and should be able to balance the economic developments, some of which are counteractive, in major regions. Full order books and a vital international project landscape support the prolongation of the sector’s successful development.
Sideways development or slightly increased demand for firefighting vehicles is expected on the North American market in 2020. The procurement volume should therefore be above the long-term average of approximately 4,000 vehicles this year. Municipalities in particular appear undaunted by the slowing economy and are investing. The biggest challenge to the US firefighting industry in 2020 will be recruiting suitable employees.
The European firefighting market is set to continue its growth in 2020. Demand mainly comes from the D-A-CH region (Germany, Austria, Switzerland) and some Western European countries, in which there are regular replacements. The project landscape in Southeastern Europe also appears noticeably more dynamic, although the requirements here vary greatly from country to country.
Demand on the Asian firefighting markets in 2020 is also expected to be stronger than the past year: a significant factor here concerns the many planned airports that will have to be equipped with new firefighting vehicles. Orders in China should also rally, where new structures and processes have been consolidated following the change of ministerial responsibility for fire services. Demand in Russia is recovering slowly and is geared toward simple products. Competition on the Indian market is growing.
The countries of the Middle East started 2020 with higher demand. This is in response to the planned infrastructure projects in the region and preparations for the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar.
Revenues and result of operations
Revenues and result of operations At the time of writing this report, the IMF has not presented a new detailed economic outlook. Accordingly, the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Rosenbauer Group cannot be seriously assessed, and are consequently not included in the above outlook. It is still too early for a revenues and earnings forecast for the 2020 financial year.
- IMF, World Economic Outlook, Update, January 20, 2020.
- Press release: „Remarks by IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva to G20 on Economic Impact of COVID-19“, February 22, 2020.